DES MOINES — Republican presidential hopefuls converging on Ames for Saturday’s GOP straw poll are being egged on by the event’s history for boosting and breaking aspirations.

In past years, the massive event — part state fair, part political convention — has cemented the confidence of front-runners, lifted the fortunes of upstarts and dashed the hopes of also-rans several months before Iowa’s actual caucuses.

And although there are questions about the real significance of the 2007 straw poll, most GOP contenders are still treating the Ames gathering as a critical test of strength.

“Not everybody is going to come out of Ames, but we plan to, with your help,” former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee told about 50 supporters gathered at an Indianola park Thursday. He vowed to “surprise the daylights” out of the political world with his straw-poll showing.

“The eyes of the world are going to be on you,” Huckabee said. “Your vote Saturday is going to have a dramatic impact.”

Shelly Goergen, a Huckabee backer from Ankeny, is bringing a van-load of supporters to Ames on Saturday. Tens of thousands of Iowans are expected at the poll. 

“I think it’s going to be a really good chance for him to get his message out, to get a little more name recognition, more media coverage,” Goergen said. “I’m hoping for No.1, even No. 2 is OK.”

For others, the allure of history is calling them to Ames.

At the last straw poll in 1999, then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won and cemented his status as the cash-flush candidate to beat in Iowa. This time, it’s former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who will be out to show that his well-financed operation can score a victory.

Money isn’t everything, however. In 1999, publisher Steve Forbes used giant inflated balloons, an air-conditioned tent and steak dinners to attract supporters.

He finished second.

But the straw poll can offer a boost to lesser-known candidates.

Evangelist Pat Robertson stunned observers with a 1987 straw-poll win that signaled the rising power of Christian conservatives. He finished ahead of Vice President George H.W. Bush in the caucuses.

Then-Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan showed surprising strength at the 1995 poll that carried over to caucus night. 

“I think the significance in the straw poll really comes down to breathing life into the campaigns of what would be considered second-tier candidates,” said Dianne Bystrom, a political science professor at Iowa State University.

Now, such lesser-known hopefuls as Huckabee, Kansas’ U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson are vying to tap conservative power with hopes of grabbing attention.

They’re also trying to avoid the fate of candidates who dropped out after falling short of straw-poll expectations. In 1999, Alexander’s second run, former Vice President Dan Quayle’s bid and Elizabeth Dole’s campaign ended not long after the tents in Ames folded.

But few hopefuls this time are willing to say their hopes are on the line.

“I think we’ve got a reasonable prospect of showing pretty well,” Brownback said Thursday during a stop at a Christian bookstore in Urbandale. He rejects the notion that the poll is make-or-break.

“We’re going to use this to build for the caucuses,” Brownback said.

Todd Dorman can be contacted at (515) 243-0138 or at todd.dorman@lee.net.

ABOUT THE POLL

What is it? It’s a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party that also doubles as an early test for presidential candidates. Thousands are expected to attend the event, which takes over much of the ground near Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University.

Who votes? Iowa residents over 18 with a valid photo ID and $35 ticket can vote. Most who attend will get a free ticket courtesy of their favorite campaign.

Why does it matter? In past years, the straw poll has been a good indication of which campaigns have the best chance of competing well in the Iowa caucuses. Lesser-known hopefuls will be looking for a boost. Candidates who don’t do well could be headed for an early exit.

Who will be there? U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Chicago businessman John Cox, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Who won’t be there? Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee. Thompson has yet to enter the race.

STRAW POLL VS.CAUCUS RESULTS

Top 3 finishers in the Iowa GOP straw poll compared to Iowa caucuses results.

1999 straw poll

1. George W. Bush    7,418

2. Steve Forbes    4,921

3. Elizabeth Dole    3,410

2000 Iowa caucuses

1. George W. Bush  35,948

2. Steve Forbes  26,744

3. Alan Keyes  12,496

1995 straw poll

1. Bob Dole    2,582

1. Phil Gramm    2,582

3. Pat Buchanan    1,922

1996 Iowa caucuses

1. Bob Dole  25,378

2. Pat Buchanan  22,512

3. Lamar Alexander  17,003

1987 straw poll

1. Pat Robertson    1,293

2. Bob Dole       958

3. George H.W. Bush       864

1988 Iowa caucuses

1. Bob Dole  40,661

2. Pat Robertson  26,761

3. George H.W. Bush  20,194

Source: Republican Party of Iowa