Will caucus night attract record crowds?

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By Whitney Woodward | Wednesday, January 02, 2008 |

DES MOINES — With a pool of viable candidates, two competitive contests and thousands of energized Iowans, both Republicans and Democrats have reason to expect a record number of their party’s members will caucus Thursday.

Party staffers and experts alike agree it’s nearly impossible to predict with accuracy how many Iowans will turn out for caucus night because attendance is affected by a multitude of factors.

“It’s really difficult to make an estimate, in all honesty,” Republican Party of Iowa spokeswoman Mary Tiffany said.

But campaign staffers, candidates and party officials who have worked relentlessly to generate interest in this year’s caucus are hoping for an unprecedented turnout.

Riding the wave of anti-Bush sentiment, Democrats are expected to at least match — if not exceed — their 2004 attendance record of approximately 124,000 people, Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Carrie Giddins said.

That year, Democrats aligned themselves between four candidates; this year, there are six. “You can do the math from there,” Giddins said.

Over the last four years, the number of registered party members in the Hawkeye State has increased by almost 20 percent to 638,000, as compared to 533,000 members in 2004, Giddins said.

More party members could translate to more participants come Thursday.

Unlike their counterparts, Iowa Republicans will have to overcome an eight-year slumber for this year’s caucus because then-incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed in Iowa in 2004. The GOP’s most recent contested presidential caucus was in 2000, when 87,000 Iowans took to their precincts, Tiffany said.

The Republican Party of Iowa — whose current registered party members are comparable to their ranks in 2000 — would like to best their statewide attendance figure this year.

“We hope to have that number, if not exceed that,” Tiffany said.

Attendance is driven primarily by the candidates’ campaigns, which shore up caucus-goers over months of meet-and-greets and rallies.

A well-organized campaign will have an estimate of how many Iowans will caucus for their candidate. But those figures often are kept confidential, should the campaign’s estimate prove to be optimistically high, Tiffany said.

The campaigns will pull out all the stops to ensure their candidates’ supporters show up Thursday night. Many likely attendees will receive reminder phone calls, while some campaigns will offer free transportation to and from precincts. Should it snow, Hillary Clinton’s campaign, for example, plans to shovel Iowans out of their homes.

These efforts, inevitably, help boost attendance, University of Iowa political science professor and caucus expert David Redlawsk said.

“Any kind of physical, on-the-ground effort to get people out to vote is going to be at least partially successful, no matter what it is,” Redlawsk said. “It’s one thing to call people. It’s another thing to go to their door and say, ‘Hey, it’s time. Let’s go.’”

A big turnout may also be facilitated by the nature of this year’s caucus.

Typically, elections which are perceived to be close drive up participation in part because participants feel they may have a significant impact on the outcome, Redlawsk said.

Recent polls indicate Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards appear to be nearly deadlocked among likely Democratic caucus-goers.

If 2004 is any indication, contests which are perceived to be close draw Democrats to their precincts, Redlawsk said.

Among GOP hopefuls — where several recent polls put Mike Huckabee in front of Mitt Romney by a handful of percentage points — the race is too close to call, Redlawsk said.

This year’s presidential election is unusual because it’s the first time since 1952 that an incumbent president or vice president isn’t seeking the office. In that sense, both parties’ nominations are wide open.

There’s also the potential for young adults, energized by youth-friendly candidates such as Barack Obama, to drive up attendance figures. The current median age of caucus-goers is around 55, said Dennis Goldford, Drake University politics professor and political analyst.

But with many Iowa college students still home for the holidays or out of state, they may miss Thursday’s selection process.

“If they show up, they’ll have an impact,” Goldford said. “But will they show up? That’s the question. The (Howard) Dean people promised all of them in 2004, and they didn’t show up.”

The campaigns also will have to battle external factors, such as potentially treacherous weather and the date of the

caucus itself. Poor weather conditions, such as snow storms, could convince some Iowans who’d like to participate to stay home.

“The biggest, No. 1 factor is the weather, without a doubt,” Redlawsk said. “It’s the one (factor) we all kind of keep an eye on.”

And with this year’s first-in-the-nation caucus bumped closer to New Year’s Day, some speculate holiday travel may prevent some regular caucus-goers from attending. And those Iowans who are at home may be glued to their TVs caucus night, watching Virginia Tech battle Kansas University in the Orange Bowl.

Efficient campaigns will use their organizational strength to overcome these hurdles, Goldford said.

“If people are excited for the candidates, they are going to come out and spend an hour supporting them,” Goldford said. “If we get more (caucus-goers) than before, it speaks of a very enthused year.”

Whitney Woodward can be reached at

(515) 243-0138 or whitney.woodward@lee.net.

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