Obama, Huckabee lead new Iowa poll

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By Ed Tibbetts, Charlotte Eby and Dan Gearino | Saturday, December 15, 2007 |

Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama lead new Iowa poll. (FILE PHOTO) Buy this Photo

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Iowa Candidate Poll

Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee holds a nine-point lead over rival Mitt Romney in Iowa with less than three weeks to go before the Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new poll conducted for the Quad-City Times and Lee Enterprises newspapers.

Huckabee, who has surged in recent weeks, led with 31 percent, while Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, came in second at 22 percent, the poll said.

Four candidates were tightly bunched behind them.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and ex-U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee both had 9 percent, while U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas were next with 7 percent each.

U.S. Reps. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and Duncan Hunter of California were at 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Twelve percent of the respondents in the poll said they were undecided.

The survey was conducted from Monday to Thursday by Maryland-based Research 2000 and sampled the opinions of 500 likely Republican caucus-goers.

It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

“It appears Mike Huckabee has a solid base of social conservatives and is adding establishment Republicans to his core of supporters,” said Steve Grubbs, a Davenport-based political consultant.

He noted there is uncertainty to the race, however, and that’s reflected in the poll numbers. In addition to the 12 percent who called themselves undecided, 34 percent of the people in the

survey said they were likely or very likely to change their minds.

Everett Jones, of Bettendorf, reflects some of that uncertainty. He said he is leaning toward Huckabee but also likes Thompson.

“I’ll probably go with who’s the most electable,” he said.

Just more than a quarter of the sample, 27 percent, said they would not change their minds.

Thirty-nine percent said they were not very likely to change.

The past few weeks have seen a dramatic shift in the GOP race in Iowa.

Romney has spent millions of dollars in television advertising in the state and has campaigned here extensively. And he’s led the polls for months. However, Huckabee has recently vaulted ahead.

A Research 2000 poll conducted in July put Huckabee at just 2 percent, while a November survey had him at 18 percent, still nine points behind Romney.

Since Huckabee has moved ahead in polls, Romney and Thompson have launched attacks on the former Arkansas governor, targeting him on spending and immigration issues.

As in other polls, the war on terror continues to be a top concern for Republicans, according to this poll.

Thirty-two percent of respondents called it the most important issue they want to hear about from candidates. That was followed by immigration at 21 percent and moral issues at 20 percent. Lowering taxes was the most important issue for 13 percent of the poll respondents.

Only 4 percent cited getting troops out of Iraq, while 3 percent said health care costs.

Obama widens lead in Iowa

A new Quad-City Times/Lee Enterprises poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers shows U.S. Sen. Barack Obama extending his lead in Iowa to nine points with less than three weeks to go before the state’s leadoff presidential caucuses.

The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucus voters conducted by Research 2000 had Obama of Illinois leading with support from 33 percent of those surveyed.

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, who have both held the lead in Iowa polls at various times this year, are tied for second place with 24 percent.

Pollster Del Ali describes the Democratic race as volatile at this point.

“It’s a three-person race, there’s no question about that,” Ali said.

The second tier of presidential candidates trailed the top three contenders by a wide margin.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson came in fourth with support from 9 percent of those surveyed. He was followed by U.S. Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware with 3 percent.

U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio both claimed 1 percent support in the poll.

The poll, conducted by telephone from Monday to Thursday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Ali said Obama has gained eight points in Iowa since a poll conducted in November, while Clinton dropped three points.

Ali said Clinton’s stepped up criticisms of Obama haven’t helped her in Iowa.

“Obviously, what she’s doing has backfired, because your opponent shouldn’t be surging and your numbers shouldn’t be going down,” Ali said.

Edwards has gained three points since last month. He held a slight lead among independent voters likely to attend the Democratic caucuses.

Kathleen Conway of Davenport was one of the voters surveyed in the poll. She plans to attend the Iowa caucuses for the first time for Barack Obama.

Conway, 61, a faculty mentor at Scott Community College, read Obama’s book, “The Audacity of Hope,” and is impressed with his leadership skills.

“I think he’s very conciliatory and is able to build consensus,” Conway said.

She finds Clinton too abrasive and said the former first lady comes with baggage.

“I don’t trust her,” Conway said. “She seems much more sort of the typical politician. I’d like someone new, a new way of doing things.”

A plurality of those polled said experience was the most important factor in their decision, ahead of whether a candidate has new ideas.

They also chose the economy and job creation as the top issue they wanted to hear about from the candidates, followed by health care costs and getting troops out of Iraq.

When Democratic voters were asked for their second-choice candidate, Obama also led the field with 29 percent.

“That’s what shows me that he’s surging, and he’s the front-runner in Iowa,” Ali said.

Edwards was the second choice for 25 percent, and Clinton was the second choice for 21 percent.

Ali said Obama is doing well among “establishment Democrats,” registered Democrats who regularly attend the caucuses. He holds a double-digit lead with that group, which Ali said shows the party is galvanizing around Obama in Iowa.

But he said the question is whether Obama has hit his peak in the state.

More than three-fourths of voters polled, or 77 percent, said they are not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds.

Clinton had the most solid support among the top-tier candidates, with 81 percent of her supporters saying they are not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds.

Congress, Bush get low marks

A mere 27 percent of Iowans approve of President Bush’s job performance in a poll conducted for the Quad-City Times and Lee Enterprises newspapers.

But Bush’s support is higher than that of the Democratic-controlled Congress, which has 21 percent approval.

“They’re just a bunch of bickering snots, basically,” said Randolph Hyde of Bettendorf, speaking about Congress.

Hyde, a registered Republican and former manufacturing worker, said Bush has been let down by Congress.

The poll, conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000, shows widespread disenchantment with Washington. A total of 600 likely voters were interviewed from Monday to Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

While 27 percent approve of Bush’s performance, 71 percent disapprove. He has 31 percent approval from men and 23 percent from women.

Kathleen Conway of Davenport disapproves of both Bush and Congress. She is a faculty member at Scott Community College and a registered Democrat.

“I don’t think he is in touch with the common man, the regular person,” she said about Bush.

Bush’s approval among Republicans is 58 percent, while 41 percent disapprove. He has virtually no support from Democrats, with just 4 percent approval and 94 percent disapproval.

The big difference in results by party doesn’t extend to Congress’ approval rating, which is low for both Democratic and Republican respondents.

Overall, 76 percent disapprove of Congress, which is under Democratic control for the first time since the mid-1990s.

Only 28 percent of Democrats approve of Congress, while 70 percent disapprove. Among Republicans, 11 percent approve and 86 percent disapprove.

Congress has 25 percent approval from women and 17 percent from men.

Dan Gearino can be contacted at (515) 243-0138 or dan.gearino@lee.net.

Charlotte Eby can be contacted at (515) 243-0138 or chareby@aol.com.

Ed Tibbetts can be contacted at (563) 383-2327 or etibbetts@qctimes.com.