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Victorious Loebsack tabbed as long shot

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By The Associated Press | Thursday, November 9, 2006 1:36 AM CST | () comments

DES MOINES (AP) — Dave Loebsack begins most mornings at 5, all too eager to read the major stories of the day in newspapers and the Internet.

When he woke up Wednesday, Loebsack was the news — along with so many other new Democratic darlings dominating headlines across Iowa and the nation.

Among the surprises and political gains for Democrats in Tuesday’s midterms, Loebsack’s narrow victory over 30-year Republican Congressman Jim Leach in eastern Iowa was among the most stunning, say political analysts.

“Obviously they weren’t making the same analysis I was,” Loebsack said of the analysts. “All along, I had absolutely no doubt that we could win. Never once did I say we couldn’t.”

Throughout the campaign, the 2nd District took a back seat to battles in neighboring battlegrounds that drew more money, media attention and political star power.

Even when the race drew media interest, storylines focused on the polite nature of the race, the absence of television advertising and the likelihood the candidates would spend less than $1 million collectively.

It wasn’t until the campaign’s final days that Loebsack, a political science professor, was considered anything more than a long shot.

After all, Leach had a reputation as a moderate Republican unafraid to split from the party line, enjoyed the power of incumbency and had a track record of beating better funded opponents in the past — despite the district’s Democratic tilt.

The district — a mix of small farm communities and urban centers such as Cedar Rapids and the liberal college town of Iowa City — has 140,700 registered Democrats, 100,500 Republicans and 148,000 unaffiliated with either party.

As returns rolled in, the lead changed hands several times before Leach conceded after midnight, telling supporters he was relieved to be leaving office.

Repeated voice messages left with Leach staff members were not returned Wednesday.

For election analysts, the political lesson in Tuesday’s results is clear: No incumbent is safe when voters are fed up.

“I don’t think this is a case where voters decided they didn’t like Jim Leach,” said Peveril Squire, political science professor at the University of Iowa. “I just think there was a decision that he was a nice guy who was just hanging out with a bad crowd.”