Poll gives Blagojevich the edge
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By Kevin McDermott | Sunday, October 29, 2006 |
SPRINGFIELD — Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, riding a storm of advertising attacks against Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka, has maintained a steady lead over her in his re-election campaign, a new poll shows.
But the poll, conducted last week by Research 2000 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Quad-City Times and other Lee Enterprises newspapers in Illinois, also shows that well over half the voters now have an “unfavorable’’ view of the incumbent in the wake of new allegations of corruption among people close to him.
Blagojevich’s 57 percent negative rating is high enough that it would likely be politically fatal for him — except that Topinka’s favorability rating is even worse, in part because of Illinois’ growing anger with her party on both the state and national levels.
“Any other election year, Blagojevich loses this in a blowout,’’ Research 2000 pollster Del Ali said. “I think the only thing saving his butt is the disgust for the Republicans.’’
The poll found Blagojevich and Topinka both have sunk to unprecedented depths of disapproval in the public’s eyes two weeks before the Nov. 7 election, even as the roughly nine-point span between them remains constant.
Meanwhile, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney’s support has risen from almost nothing to more than 10 percent of the vote in the past two months — a measure of voter frustration with the two major-party candidates.
“I think they’re both crooked,’’ said poll respondent Harold Granger, a retiree from Milan.
Granger, a Republican, said he won’t vote for Blagojevich because “I’m not a liberal,’’ yet doesn’t support Topinka because “there’s just been too much controversy about her.’’
“I’m not very excited about it at all,’’ he said of the election.
The telephone poll of 800 likely Illinois voters throughout the state was conducted Monday through Thursday and has a margin for error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, which means that any individual figure could be that much higher or lower.
The poll found Blagojevich leading Topinka by 47 percent to 38 percent, almost exactly the numbers the two candidates had in an identical poll for the newspaper in late August.
Whitney registered just 2 percent in that earlier poll but garnered 11 percent in the new one, indicating that virtually all the previously “undecided’’ voters are settling on him instead of either of the two major-party candidates.
“They’re both very much disliked,’’ Ali said. “I can see Whitney’s support growing. I wouldn’t be shocked if the guy gets 20 percent.’’
Advertising’s impact
The cause of Topinka’s drop is likely the barrage of negative ads that Blagojevich has been running against her, tying her to disgraced former Gov. George Ryan and President George W. Bush and slamming her on policy positions with the omnipresent slogan, “What’s She Thinking?’’
“She’s been there (in state government) too long,’’ said poll respondent Irene Patton of Mount Vernon, reflecting one of the themes of the Blagojevich commercials. “It’s time for her to retire.’’
Blagojevich, who has raised record funds in the past two years, has spent more than $10 million on television advertising in the past few months, much of it attacking Topinka.
Topinka’s campaign has issued barely a whisper of response. She has only a fraction of the funding, in part because the national GOP has written off Illinois as lost.
“She’s a Republican running for governor in a ‘blue’ state,’’ noted Charles Wheeler, a longtime political journalist and now director of the Public Affairs Reporting program at the University of Illinois at Springfield. “The national Republicans are trying like hell to save Congress. They’re not going to put any time or money into Illinois’’ for a gubernatorial race.
Other negative factors
Blagojevich’s own plunge in favorability is harder to explain. Negative ads do tend to hurt the attacker as well as the attacked, but such a deep drop in his standing likely goes beyond that and may involve the ongoing federal investigation of contracting and hiring practices of the administration.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Attorney’s office in Chicago announced that Blagojevich friend and adviser Antoin “Tony’’ Rezko had been indicted on charges he tried to use his administration ties to extort money from state contractors. It was the latest and most damaging in a series of allegations against people close to the administration.
A Chicago Tribune poll conducted that week — before most respondents were aware of the Rezko allegations — showed Blagojevich with an “unfavorable’’ rating of 43 percent, which was roughly consistent with the Post-Dispatch-Lee Enterprises poll of late August.
The newest poll, taken last week, found that Blagojevich’s “unfavorable’’ rating had spiked to 57 percent.
The same poll found that 78 percent of respondents were aware of the Rezko allegations. Just over one-third of respondents believe Blagojevich when he says he didn’t know about his friend’s alleged activities.
“They’re basically calling him a liar, but they’re still going to vote for him,’’ Ali said.
He said that dynamic is further evidence of anti-Republican “national mood,’’ which is especially strong in Illinois.
Still, Ali said, the continuing federal investigation could continue to erode Blagojevich’s standing, especially if more news breaks on it in the next two weeks.
“This thing isn’t good’’ for Blagojevich, Ali said of the Rezko allegations. “Without that, he probably wouldn’t be above 50 percent (unfavorable).’’
Blagojevich hasn’t been accused of wrongdoing. But the federal probe has included allegations that Blagojevich supporters demanded that political contributions be made to his campaign fund in exchange for state work — allegations that may remind corruption-weary Illinois voters of other recent scandals involving campaign funds.
“I don’t like the way he’s gotten his money,’’ said poll respondent Charles Henna, a retired Army pilot who said he is reluctantly supporting Topinka.
Kevin McDermott can be contacted at (217) 782-4912 or kmcdermott@post-dispatch.com.
Poll results
If the election for the Illinois governor were held today who would you vote for?
47% Rod Blagojevich (D)
38% Judy Baar Topinka (R)
11% Rich Whitney (Green)
4% Undecided
Source: Research 2000
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