Q-C prepares for influenza pandemic

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By Ann McGlynn | Friday, October 20, 2006 1:29 AM CDT | () comments

A side-view photo of a man mid-sneeze flashed on the screen.

The photo illustrated the words Dr. Louis Katz told the Scott County Board of Health on Thursday: When, not if, a pandemic flu hits, it will be transmitted through “the big chunks,” the droplets of ick coming from the sick, said Katz, who is the medical director for the health department

The rules we’ve all heard before will be more important than ever to put into action to help prevent the spread of what will be a deadly disease: wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough, stay home if sick, get a flu shot, clean the horizontal surfaces in your surroundings, he added.

Personal responsibility for health and readiness, coupled with proper planning by community organizations will help stem the spread of the disease, Katz said. But, if the pandemic is as bad as the 1918 flu that killed millions, it “is going to get ugly no matter how well we plan.”

“If we’re ready for a pandemic, we’re probably ready for anything,” he said during an update about pandemic flu.

A pandemic flu is caused by an “antigenic shift,” or big change, with a virus, he said. That is compared with the seasonal flu, which is caused by a “drift,” or small mutations.

The “shifted” virus must first pass from animal to human, then from human to human. It then must become efficient in person-to-person transmission to become a pandemic.

The avian influenza widely discussed as the possible cause of the next pandemic flu, Katz said, may not be the virus to cause the problem. “Quit pickin’ on the chickens,” he said.

Assumptions, he said, for the next pandemic include:

n Outbreaks will occur simultaneously throughout the world, prompting an overwhelming demand for services with no “outside” help.

n Absenteeism from all sectors would run at about 35 percent to 45 percent.

n Order and security would be disrupted for months, not days or weeks.

The challenges for when the pandemic hits, Katz said, is effective surveillance, operational continuity, copy with economic impact, the capacity to keep people away from each other, how to get the public to buy in to realistic planning and effective communication with the media.

One of his major concerns is what he called the “just-in-time” economy that society uses: preparedness means excess capacity and waste.

“That’s the way the economy looks at the levels of preparedness we are talking about, and we have got to get by that,” he said.

Mary Mincer Hansen, the director of the Iowa Department of Public Health, said an example of that is a stockpile of anti-viral the state recently ordered. It will cost $5 million. It has a shelf life of five years.

The two questions she is most asked is when will it happen, and who will get those anti-virals. She can answer neither question, she said.

“No one can predict when it will happen,” she said. “When it hits, we will have to determine who it is hitting” before determining who will receive the medication to lessen the symptoms.

FREE SEMINAR

A free seminar about pandemic flu planning for business, education, government, health-care, faith-based, nonprofit and law enforcement leaders will be held Tuesday, Oct. 31, at the Isle of Capri Convention Center from 8 a.m. to noon.

Presenters will include Louis Katz, Larry Barker and Carol Schnyder from the Scott County Health Department, William Candler and Wendy Trute from the Rock Island County Health Department and Gerry Voelliger from the Bettendorf Fire Department.

To register, contact Mark Hunt at the Bi-State Regional Commission at (309) 793-6302, ext. 131.

Ann McGlynn can be contacted at (563) 383-2336 or amcglynn@qctimes.com.